Sunday, December 25, 2016

2016 3rd Trade on 11/9/16 (+2.9%) - After 2016 US Election




  • Stock Market (S&P 500) Index started fall in early November '16 before election (I was out of market since 8/24/2016.  See 2nd trade for detail) 
  • I noticed the significant rise on11/7/16 and 11/8/16 after election. 
  • I decided to enter S&P 500 Index funds if pricing breaks above descending red trend line. This would be a key event to signal that market is changing direction.  
  • On 11/9/16, I entered 50% of my 401K and Roth portfolios into S&P 500 funds.  The reason I used 50% of 401K and Roth fund is because I'm confident that the trend is strong on the breakout date.  However, I needed more evidence before I will commit more of my retirement funds




  • Pennant pattern (between two green lines) was formed in following days to consolidate recent gains.  These tight daily candles where pricing do not vary higher or lower indicated buyers were holding on to their gains.  No selling :)
  • On 11/15/16, I entered another 40% of my 401K and Roth sources into same S&P500 funds with breakout of Pennant pattern.  90% of my portfolio in S&P500 funds at this time.



  • On11/22/16, I decided to sold 30% of S&P500 funds for profit.  I always take some profit on the way up.  
  • Two days later, pricing temporary peak and consolidation took place where pricing drift down slightly.  This action is normal after run up in pricing.



  • After consolidation, another massive run starts
  • On 12/14/16, I sold another 16% S&P 500 funds for profit.  I have to admit that I got greedy and didn't sell one day sooner.  Note that previous day's closing pricing was above the Bollinger Bands where it measured 2 times standard deviation of pricing.  Just means pricing is really high compared to recent trading prices



  • I started noticing the daily close is lower than the daily highest price, the wick on the daily candles.  This showed some weakness in the pattern.  
  • On 12/16/16, I sold another 30% for profit.   14% of portfolio in S&P500 funds remained.  
  • On 12/23/16, I decided to sell another 7% S&P500 funds since trading volume is usually thin near Christmas holidays.  This means very difficult to read chart pattern and trading behavior.  I usually would not sell unless chart indicates weakness.  Only have 7% in S&P 500 funds remained.
  • On 12/28/16, sold remaining 7% S&P500 to end this trade.  I sold because on 12/27 the candle resembled a shooting star candle (prices can't hold near high of day) then following by sell off on this day.
  • Overall, +2.9% on 401K & Roth accounts.
Let me what you think of this trade or have questions.

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